Betting Big Road Favorites

In the last 12 years, betting against teams that have been favored on the road by more than 7 points has been a wager that has shown great profits. Vegas odds usually don't correctly take into account the home advantage a team has when playing against a far superior team. This advantage is much greater since players and coaches get even more fired up to beat a dominant team at home, or at least make it a good game for the fans, no one likes getting embarrassed at home.

In 107 games between 1997-2007 the big road favorite (> -7 favorite) the home team has cover the spread 63% of the time or 63-38-3. For the road favorite to only cover here 37% of the time is a huge gap in the odds and the outcome. Just betting on this at 63% would make a very successful bettor over that long term. These games can often be a good time to get an underdog pick at a great money line value. in 2006, 10 games fit the mold with a 7+ point road favorite. In these games, 4 home underdogs actually won, and only two of the 10 big road favorites covered the spread. The games that fit the mold for that season are listed below:

• Indianapolis (-8) at NY Jets - Score: Colts 31 - Jets 28
• Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee - Score: Cowboys 45 - Titans 14
• San Diego (-10) at San Francisco - Score: Chargers 48 - 49ers 19
• Chicago (-13) at Arizona - Score: Bears 24 - Cardinals 23
• Jacksonville (-8) at Houston - Score: Texans 27 - Jaguars 7
• Pittsburgh (-9) at Oakland - Score: Raiders 20 - Steelers 13
• Baltimore (-7.5) at Tennessee - Score: Ravens 27 - Titans 26
• Denver (-8) at Oakland - Score: Broncos 17 - Raiders 13
  
• Indianapolis (-7.5) at Tennessee - Score: Titans 20 - Colts 17
  
• Indianapolis (-9.5) at Houston - Score: Texans 27 - Colts 24

So keep this in mind when looking for good situations to bet into. Big Road Favorites are often overestimated by the vegas odds in order to balance the bets of both sides.