Advanced Fantasy Football Draft Player Values
Published September 1, 2011 | 
The draft is the most important part of winning your fantasy league each year. There are many important factors to consider for each player when drafting them including injury risk, upside/potential, and consistency. But the dominant factor which you want to hold true with every pick is value. The way most think of value in fantasy is to grab a guy much later than your trusted source says to draft them, or where you think he should go.
Introducing PAA and PAL
PAA, or Points Above Average, is the projected amount of fantasy points over the average projected points at that position. So if Adrian Peterson is projected for 260points, and you league will start 30 RB’s each week, and the average projections of the top 30 RBs is 200, Adrian Peterson’s PAA is 60 and his PAA/Week is 3.75 Pts/Wk (60 points /16 weeks).
PAL , or Points Above Last, is very similar to PAA, just compared with the last projected starter at each position rather than the average. So PAL is the player’s projected points subtracted by the lowest projected starter in your league. So Adrian Peterson with 260 projected points and the #31 RB is Fred Jackson with 142 projected points, Peterson’s PAL is 118 (260-142) and his PAL/Week is 7.375 (118 points /16 weeks).
Fully Customized To Your League
Each advanced fantasy draft values page (Overall, QB, RB, WR, TE) can be tailored to your specific league to take into account how many at each position will be starting. Use the input forms just above each data table to change the values. Continue reading
Posted in Fantasy, Statistics | 
Advanced Fantasy Draft Values, PAA, PAL, QB Draft Values, RB Draft Values2011 Fantasy Football QB Sleepers
Published September 1, 2011 | 
This year all the talk is about Vick and Aaron Rodgers. Both are running QB’s, and get a lot of touchdowns with their feet. If you can get one of these guys without sacrificing a top pick, great. If not, it’s worth holding out for quite a few rounds until you can pick up a couple sleepers or a decent guy going later. If you’re in a multiple QB league, QB sleepers might end up being invaluable.
Josh Freeman, QB, TB
In 2010, Josh Freeman burst onto the scene establishing himself as a star QB in this league. Freeman in the final 12 weeks of 2010 threw 20 TDs and only 3 picks. While he and Vick had one of the luckiest possible interception years ever, that may not matter.
Freeman rushed for 364 yards and not a single TD. in 2009 he didnt’ have a single rushing TD either, so it may be a trend, but that just has to be unlucky. While LeGarrette Blount is going to get the primary goal line carries, even if Freeman throws 6 more picks, that can easily be counteracted by only 3 more passing TDs and 2 rush TDs. QB’s that get rush yards like Rodgers and Freeman can really make a fantasy difference.
I would feel comfortable with Freeman as a #1 QB if I’m able to pick up 2 or 3 stud running backs in the first 3 rounds and hold out for Freeman in the 8th to 10th rounds. We have him at #5 overall, which sounds crazy, but he finished at 7th QB overall with 0 rush TDs in 2010.
PickingPros Projections: #5 QB, 3252 Yds, 25 TD 6 INT, 264 Pts.
Other Guys: Yahoo #9 QB, ESPN #10 QB 247 Pts Continue reading
Posted in Fantasy | Cam Newton, Fantasy Sleepers, Josh Freeman, Matt Stafford, QB Sleepers, Vince Young2011 Fantasy Football WR Sleepers
Published August 25, 2011 | 
The key to a successful fantasy draft is to find value at every pick and value as deep as the draft and your bench can go. Last year at WR guys like Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd and Dwayne Bowe were guys that were ranked in the middle of the pack, and ended up in the top 10, with Lloyd finishing with the most fantasy points of any WR.
This year there is a crop of young talent poised to make fantasy moves at the WR position. I’ll throw in two rookies and a dude that conditioned himself in prison.
Plaxico Burress, NYJ
I am most looking forward to Burress on MNF in his intro saying ” from Oneida Correctional Facility” as his school. But I was the first to write off Plaxico Burress a month ago when teams were giving him even the time of day, let alone the $3.5 million the Jets dropped on him to downgrade from a minimum wage Braylon Edwards. While Burress has been injured a bit in camp, which could linger throughout the season, he has really dazzled in practice and in preseason with his diving over the head endzone catch. Plaxico isn’t going to end up in any fantasy top 10′s but he could easily land 50 yards a game and 7 or 8 TD’s which would land him in the low 20′s for a nice WR3 that starts on your bench. He should be close to free towards the end of an auction draft, and is about as deep a sleeper as they get.
PickingPros Projections: #79 WR, 435 Yds 2.2 TD 57 pts
Other Guys: ESPN #44 WR, 719 Yds 8 TD | Yahoo #41 WR 743 Yds 4.3 TD
Mario Manningham, NYG
Eli Manning had a bad year last year, but those seasons for a good QB don’t tend to repeat themselves. but even still last year Hakeem Nicks was in the top 10 and Mario Manningham put a couple huge games for lucky owners. This year pretty much the entire Giants defense has gone down with season ending injuries. That means the Giants are going to be down in games, a lot. Requiring the Giants to get away from the run and start slinging deep balls. Manningham is the #2 WR and as #2 WR’s go he has got to be considered the top guy. With Victor Cruz being the team’s #3 receiver and Ramses Barden looking like he won’t contribute much this year, this could be a 2 man pass attack with the departure of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss from the pass game. Don’t let Manningham slip away in any of your drafts, especially auction format. Solid #2, best #3 in any league.
PickingPros Projections: #12 WR, 1040 Yds 6.1 TD, 140.37 Pts
Other Guys: ESPN #23 WR 926/7TD 132 Pts | Yahoo #18 WR 929/7.5 TD 136.59 Pts
Mike Sims-Walker, STL
Mike Sims-Walker signed with the Rams this season to help out 2nd year QB Sam Bradford, and he should get a lot of attention. Sam Bradford is already on par at this stage of his career with Garrard at his prime. Sims-Walker has big hands and will simply bring down TD’s. With Josh McDaniel’s tutelage (hold your breath) this pass attack could become dangerous and against the worst division in football, this team shold put up some numbers.
PickingPros Projections: #51 WR, 675 Yds, 3.3 TD
Other Guys: ESPN #55 WR 611/5TD 91 Pts | Yahoo #37 WR 638/3.8TD 85 Pts
Julio Jones, ATL
The best rookie WR in the NFL, especially fantasy-wise, is a good sleeper in this years draft. Lockout only helped Julio, as he trained with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez all summer. Look for Matt Ryan this season to take a huge step up in stats, and Roddy White to take a small step down. Julio Jones is a legit deep threat, and is instantly one of the most athletic WR’s in the NFL. He will get a lot of balls thrown his way in what I believe will become one of the league’s top 7 pass offenses this year.
PickingPros Projections: #43 WR 629Yds, 5.4 TD, 95 Pts
Other Guys: ESPN #47 585/4Td 95Pts | Yahoo #28 677/5.7 TD 101Pts
Others:
Greg Little, CLE: Another bench WR at best, but he has looked great in preseason, and Colt McCoy could be poised for a big pop in the new west coast offense, and look for Little to be his #1 guy. Potential for a #3 WR in deep leauges. It’s always my opinion to never draft any Browns or Bengals, including Hillis, but Little could be a surprise that could fill time late in the season.
Danny Amendola, STL: Another Rams WR on the sleepers list. He doesn’t have the potential of Sims-Walker, but McDaniels created the Wes Welker position basically and Amendola could be that guy in this offense. Either Sims-Walker or Amendola will have solid top 20 season in 2011.
Posted in Fantasy | 2011 Fantasy Sleepers, Julio Jones, Mario Manningham, Plaxico Burress, WR Sleepers2011 Fantasy Football RB Sleepers
Published August 11, 2011 | 
LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB
PickingPros Projections: #10 RB, 1432 yds, 9TD 250 Yds Rec, 221 fantasy points. Solid #1, #2 RB.
2011 Running Back Fantasy Projections & Rankings
Published August 11, 2011 | 
Full season fantasy RB projections are now posted for all of the running backs that are signed by teams. Changes will still be made weekly to the % of the load each running back will carry until the regular season starts.
There are a couple of surprises in the top with McCoy taking the top projection spot, and Chris Johnson not being in the top 10. Sound crazy? Titans just got better at QB, which may open up the run, but if they have to give CJ a big deal this offseason expect him to get spelled a lot more to protect their money and CJ’s longevity.
LeShaun McCoy has a chance to be a healthy Brian Westbrook who was always the #2 back behind LT in his prime. Look for him to make a huge step up even with Ronnie Brown helping to spell him and keep him healthy.
Check out the projections & rankings and happy drafting!