Thursday Night Pick: IND(-3) at JAC
Published December 17, 2009 | 
Peyton is still undefeated facing a division rival who have spoiled Colts undefeated seasons in the past. The Jaguars defense a few years ago would give Peyton trouble, put times have changed and Peyton owns the Jags team of late.
We are starting to hear whispers out of players in Indy indicating they want to go for the undefeated season. I mean, why not? All it does is keep up momentum going into playoffs. The Colts will rest their injured players in the final 3 weeks as much as possible.
But 3 points in this situation is just not enough to give the jaguars the betting edge. The Colts have the advantage in all of the major statistical categories that are causal to a win (with the exception of the large gap in rushing).
Look for the Colts defense to come through again and lead the colts to a 6 point victory.
Moss, Doggin’ It? (No Vick references I promise…)
Published December 16, 2009 | 
So after the Patriots vs. Panthers game this past weekend, everyone who has ever watched sports has put an opinion into this Moss ‘quitting’ situation. Well I was of course watching the game, and said myself multiple times: “Ok, this guy is finally quitting on the Patriots.” And that interception that Gamble had was because of a weakly run route (and a lofted pass).
“We knew he was going to shut it down,” Panthers cornerback Chris Gamble said after the game. “That’s what we wanted to do him. That’s what we did. … He’d just give up a lot … Slow down, he’s not going deep, not trying to run a route. You can tell, his body language.” Gamble continued … “I know everyone who plays against him, they can sense that. Once you get into him in the beginning of the game, he shuts it down a little bit.”
All of this is true, if Moss isn’t involved early, he’ll shut it down a little bit (see Terrell Owens or NBA defense). But some of the best analysis of Moss in this game was given by Merrill Hoge and Steve Young (ESPN’s best football minds, in my opinion). Hoge says he watched the tape and it was Moss’ hardest fought game hes ever seen, including route running. And those two had the Gamble interception spot on.
First of all, Peppers came flying at Brady, so he threw the ball early and off of his back foot so the ball floated up for the defender. Gamble was playing an outside route defense, which is dangerous for the QB on the out route. Moss saw this, and knew Brady wouldn’t throw the pass into that kind of coverage to Moss, so maybe he didn’t run the route as hard as he could/should and it resulted in a pick. But receivers often know when and when they are not getting the ball on certain plays/coverages, and take a couple plays off. Sprinting 20 yards full out every minute for 180 minutes is not an easy task, so that is justified.
End of story, as much as I dislike the Patriots and hope for all the turmoil in the world to come upon them, Moss deserves a break this time. From what I’ve seen hes been a great player since leaving the horrid situation in Oakland and playing HOF football. But just for fun, can we go ahead and speculate that Moss DID QUIT, and its because he is jealous of Wes Welker being the most influential and game changing WR’s in the league? Rumor, begun.
Monday Night Pick: ARZ at SF(+180)
Published December 14, 2009 | 
While this game is still a big one, with fans geared up for this match-up on both sides, it could have been much better. Had the 49ers won last week or the Cardinals lost, this game would have a big impact on the playoff outcome. Now the Niners need a miracle (Win last 4, ARZ lose last 4) to make the playoffs.
Outside of any playoff potential, this 49ers team has a load of talent on both sides of the ball and they need to gain some confidence in their abilities with big implications for offseason work ethic going into next season. Mike Singletary knows this and will have his team prepared like it is a playoff game.
The Cardinals know they have basically solidified their playoff position and are really only playing for Home field in the 1st round of the playoffs. Lets see if Kurt Warner ‘feels’ like playing after his first hard hit by the SF linebackers.
49ers cover the spread (+4) and win the game behind (Yes I’m saying it) Alex Smith.