The draft is the most important part of winning your fantasy league each year. There are many important factors to consider for each player when drafting them including injury risk, upside/potential, and consistency. But the dominant factor which you want to hold true with every pick is value. The way most think of value in fantasy is to grab a guy much later than your trusted source says to draft them, or where you think he should go.

Introducing PAA and PAL

PAA, or Points Above Average, is the projected amount of fantasy points over the average projected points at that position. So if Adrian Peterson is projected for 260points, and you league will start 30 RB’s each week, and the average projections of the top 30 RBs is 200, Adrian Peterson’s PAA is 60 and his PAA/Week is 3.75 Pts/Wk (60 points /16 weeks).

PAL , or Points Above Last, is very similar to PAA, just compared with the last projected starter at each position rather than the average. So PAL is the player’s projected points subtracted by the lowest projected starter in your league. So Adrian Peterson with 260 projected points and the #31 RB is Fred Jackson with 142 projected points, Peterson’s PAL is  118 (260-142) and his PAL/Week is 7.375 (118 points /16 weeks).

Fully Customized To Your League

Each advanced fantasy draft values page (Overall, QB, RB, WR, TE) can be tailored to your specific league to take into account how many at each position will be starting. Use the input forms just above each data table to change the values.

If your league is starting  2 QBs instead of 1, or 3 RB’s instead of 2, it can all be easily taken into account so that the PAA and PAL stats are recalculated for the correct number of each starting position in your league.

If your league has 16 teams and is starting 3 RBs, or 2 RBs and 1 flex, you can see that there will be 48 (16*3) starting running backs in your league, so the PAA will be calculated on the average of the top 48 backs, and the PAL will be calculated against the 49th player for that position.

How To Use PAA & PAL

PAA and PAL are indicators of value and shows the relative values of players against other players at that position. PAA will be a good indicator of the number of points more than the average opponent in your league you will average. The PAL can be more of an indicator of worst case scenario. So if you decide to wait to grab a certain position, WR for instance, you can see what you’ll be losing by grabbing the worst such player at that position. This will show you, hey I really have to grab RBs early or I will be losing a lot of points every week, and if I wait on WRs, I won’t lose much at all waiting until later.

PAL/$

Included in these data tables are PAL/$ values. These stats are the Points Above Last (PAL) per dollar it costs on average to buy them in an auction draft. You can sort through both the ESPN and Yahoo average auction draft costs and values to see who will give you the most bang for your buck. PAL’s are a way to quantify how many points above the worst at each position a player is per dollar you spend. A true indicator of value. These values are the overall PAL, not the PAL/wk.

Examples of Strategy

One thing that has become apparent with every algorithm I run in fantasy, is that the top tight ends are going too late in drafts. Now there is no reason to reach when everyone else is letting them slide too, but in 2011, Gates and Finley are looking like some of the most valuable players int he draft.

The PAA for Gates & Finley are 2.61 and 2.37 repectively, or #7 and #10 overall for ALL players. What this tells you is that Gates/Finley will get you more points than your opponent on a week to week basis than ALL the WR’s and RB’s such as Ray Rice, Blount,  McFadden. Yet you aren’t going to take Gates or Finley in the top 2 rounds, probably not until the 4th or 5rh round but in auction draft you must grab these guys.

Using the PAL/$ values, you can determine which guys are going to get you the most points for the smallest amount of coin in auction drafts. The guys at the top of these lists are the low dollar guys that you can get cheap and late in the drafts, but if you look at the average auction costs with the PAL/$ you can see the most underrated top of the draft guys. Guys like LaGarrette Blount, Matt Forte, and LeSean McCoy top the most undervalued guys that are going in the first 2 rounds of the draft.

So play around with the positions with your league settings, figure out some solid draft strategy using these new stats and most importantly, win your league and embarrass your friends.

Overall Fantasy Draft Values

QB Advanced Fantasy Draft Values

RB Advanced Fantasy Draft Values

WR Advanced Fantasy Draft Values

TE Advanced Fantasy Draft Values

This year all the talk is about Vick and Aaron Rodgers. Both are running QB’s, and get a lot of touchdowns with their feet. If you can get one of these guys without sacrificing a top pick, great. If not, it’s worth holding out for quite a few rounds until you can pick up a couple sleepers or a decent guy going later. If you’re in a multiple QB league, QB sleepers might end up being invaluable.

Josh Freeman, QB, TB

In 2010, Josh Freeman burst onto the scene establishing himself as a star QB in this league. Freeman in the final 12 weeks of 2010 threw 20 TDs and only 3 picks. While he and Vick had one of the luckiest possible interception years ever, that may not matter.

Freeman rushed for 364 yards and not a single TD. in 2009 he didnt’ have a single rushing TD either, so it may be a trend, but that just has to be unlucky. While LeGarrette Blount is going to get the primary goal line carries, even if Freeman throws 6 more picks, that can easily be counteracted by only 3 more passing TDs and 2 rush TDs. QB’s that get rush yards like Rodgers and Freeman can really make a fantasy difference.

I would feel comfortable with Freeman as a #1 QB if I’m able to pick up 2 or 3 stud running backs in the first 3 rounds and hold out for Freeman in the 8th to 10th rounds. We have him at #5 overall, which sounds crazy, but he finished at 7th QB overall with 0 rush TDs in 2010.

PickingPros Projections: #5 QB, 3252 Yds, 25 TD 6 INT, 264 Pts.

Other Guys: Yahoo #9 QB, ESPN #10 QB 247 Pts

Joe Flacco, QB, BAL

Last year Joe Flacco was the #10 QB in fantasy, and was on a lot of sleeper lists for 2010. This year he’s lost some odl receivers and Todd Heap, and picked up a legitimate deep threat in Lee Evans from Buffalo. They also drafted athletic freak Torrey Smith. Ray Rice will get even more TD looks via screen pass in open space. Flacco is an accurate deep passer and goes deep 6th most in the NFL without Lee Evans. You can also feel comfortable with Flacco as your #1 QB if you go to all your other positions first and pick him up in 9th-10th round.

PickingPros Projections: #10 QB, 3347 Yds, 29 TD, 6 INT.

Other Guys: Yahoo #15 3554 Yds 26 TD/10 INT | ESPN #13 3641 27TD/16INT

Matt Stafford, QB, DET

Injury-prone is an understatement for Matt Stafford even though he insists he has never been injured before all of this. But he has looked awesome in the pre-season and has the best WR for lesser skilled QB’s in Calvin Johnson. Jahvid Best will help him by catching a ton of passes too. Last year the Lions QBs put up 3800 yards and 28 TDs. That’s high for any QB not named Peyton. Stafford has serious top 5 potential, and is currently ranked #17 in ESPN’s projections.

Stafford is starting to go higher in drafts and costs more in auction drafts, but maybe the guys in your home league are still drafting Tomlinson and will let you get Stafford in the 8th-11th round.

PickingPros Projections: #15 QB 3637 Yds, 25 TD, 10 INT 229 Pts

Other Guys: Yahoo #12 QB 3763Yds 26TD18INT 262Pts | ESPN #17 195 Pts

Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ

Sanchez is the first guy you absolutely cannot have as your #1 QB in any league, but if you are in a 2 QB league or want a solid backup against poor defenses, Sanchez has potential to be really good for you.

Tom Moore, Peyton Manning’s old water boy and O-Coordinator is now with the Jets coaching Sanchez. They also paid Santonio Holmes a ton of money, and Burress actually looks like he’ll be a legit NFL receiver if he can stay healthy. If the Jets want to take it to another level, they need to let Sanchez loose this year. That could mean a whole lot more INT’s but it may mean a whole lot of TDs.

PickingPros Projections: #21 QB 3623 Yds 15TD 15INT 183 Pts

Other Guys: Yahoo #21 207 Pts | ESPN #19 196 Pts

Deep Flyers That You’ll Love

Cam Newton, CAR: Cam is a rookie and will struggle mightily. But if you got the 7th-10th best QB in your league, late in the season, Cam Newton will face a couple poor defenses, and he will be running, a lot. A running QB (1500yds 20TD at Auburn) can put down some outrageous fantasy points in certain weeks.

Vince Young, PHI: Backing up the best QB in the league. Vince Young comes in and will be a top 7 QB if Vick gets hurt. Vince Young haters will say that he wouldn’t be top 15, but Vince Young haters are in general misinformed. Vince Young will run the ball efficiently, and is a more accurate deep passer (seriously) than anyone in the league (think DeShaun Jackson deep 3 times a game).  I will have Vince Young on the bench in almost all of my league’s with a  weak QB.

If you end up with one of these guys as your #1 QB, you may be alright, but make sure to pick up at least two or three of them, we’ll know shortly into the season who will have the biggest seasons.

The key to a successful fantasy draft is to find value at every pick and value as deep as the draft and your bench can go. Last year at WR guys like Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd and Dwayne Bowe were guys that were ranked in the middle of the pack, and ended up in the top 10, with Lloyd finishing with the most fantasy points of any WR.

This year there is a crop of young talent poised to make fantasy moves at the WR position. I’ll throw in two rookies and a dude that conditioned himself in prison.

Plaxico Burress, NYJ

I am most looking forward to Burress on MNF in his intro saying ” from Oneida Correctional Facility” as his school.  But I was the first to write off Plaxico Burress a month ago when teams were giving him even the time of day, let alone the $3.5 million the Jets dropped on him to downgrade from a minimum wage Braylon Edwards. While Burress has been injured a bit in camp, which could linger throughout the season, he has really dazzled in practice and in preseason with his diving over the head endzone catch. Plaxico isn’t going to end up in any fantasy top 10′s but he could easily land 50 yards a game and 7 or 8 TD’s which would land him in the low 20′s for a nice WR3 that starts on your bench. He should be close to free towards the end of an auction draft, and is about as deep a sleeper as they get.

PickingPros Projections:  #79 WR, 435 Yds 2.2 TD 57 pts

Other Guys: ESPN #44 WR, 719 Yds 8 TD | Yahoo #41 WR 743 Yds 4.3 TD

Mario Manningham, NYG

Eli Manning had a bad year last year, but those seasons for a good QB don’t tend to repeat themselves. but even still last year Hakeem Nicks was in the top 10 and Mario Manningham put a couple huge games for lucky owners. This year pretty much the entire Giants defense has gone down with season ending injuries. That means the Giants are going to be down in games, a lot. Requiring the Giants to get away from the run and start slinging deep balls. Manningham is the #2 WR and as #2 WR’s go he has got to be considered the top guy. With Victor Cruz being the team’s #3 receiver and Ramses Barden looking like he won’t contribute much this year, this could be a 2 man pass attack with the departure of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss from the pass game. Don’t let Manningham slip away in any of your drafts, especially auction format. Solid #2, best #3 in any league.

PickingPros Projections: #12 WR, 1040 Yds 6.1 TD, 140.37 Pts

Other Guys: ESPN #23 WR 926/7TD 132 Pts | Yahoo #18 WR 929/7.5 TD 136.59 Pts

Mike Sims-Walker, STL

Mike Sims-Walker signed with the Rams this season to help out 2nd year QB Sam Bradford, and he should get a lot of attention. Sam Bradford is already on par at this stage of his career with Garrard at his prime. Sims-Walker has big hands and will simply bring down TD’s. With Josh McDaniel’s tutelage (hold your breath) this pass attack could become dangerous and against the worst division in football, this team shold put up some numbers.

PickingPros Projections: #51 WR, 675 Yds, 3.3 TD

Other Guys: ESPN #55 WR 611/5TD 91 Pts  | Yahoo #37 WR 638/3.8TD 85 Pts

Julio Jones, ATL

The best rookie WR in the NFL, especially fantasy-wise, is a good sleeper in this years draft. Lockout only helped Julio, as he trained with Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez all summer. Look for Matt Ryan this season to take a huge step up in stats, and Roddy White to take a small step down. Julio Jones is a legit deep threat, and is instantly one of the most athletic WR’s in the NFL. He will get a lot of balls thrown his way in what I believe will become one of the league’s top 7 pass offenses this year.

PickingPros Projections: #43 WR 629Yds, 5.4 TD, 95 Pts

Other Guys: ESPN #47 585/4Td 95Pts | Yahoo #28 677/5.7 TD 101Pts

Others:

Greg Little, CLE: Another bench WR at best, but he has looked great in preseason, and Colt McCoy could be poised for a big pop in the new west coast offense, and look for Little to be his #1 guy. Potential for a #3 WR in deep leauges. It’s always my opinion to never draft any Browns or Bengals, including Hillis, but Little could be a surprise that could fill time late in the season.

Danny Amendola, STL: Another Rams WR on the sleepers list. He doesn’t have the potential of Sims-Walker, but McDaniels created the Wes Welker position basically and Amendola could be that guy in this offense. Either Sims-Walker or Amendola will have solid top 20 season in 2011.

LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB

PickingPros Projections:  #10 RB, 1432 yds, 9TD 250 Yds Rec, 221 fantasy points. Solid #1, #2 RB.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN

Mark Ingram, RB, NO

Ryan Mathews, RB, SD

LeSean McCoy RB, PHI

Long Shots

Full season fantasy RB projections are now posted for all of the running backs that are signed by teams. Changes will still be made weekly to the % of the load each running back will carry until the regular season starts.

There are a couple of surprises in the top with McCoy taking the top projection spot, and Chris Johnson not being in the top 10. Sound crazy? Titans just got better at QB, which may open up the run, but if they have to give CJ a big deal this offseason expect him to get spelled a lot more to protect their money and CJ’s longevity.

LeShaun McCoy has a chance to be a healthy Brian Westbrook who was always the #2 back behind LT in his prime. Look for him to make a huge step up even with Ronnie Brown helping to spell him and keep him healthy.

Check out the projections & rankings and happy drafting!

About The Rankings

Well the lockout is over, and players are back to work. Most all of the top free agents have signed, so most of the important fantasy ranks have been calculated.

Our rankings are based upon team projections for the coming year. The projections are based upon last years performance coupled with offseason improvements. Each game’s statistics is then calculated based on each matchup. Each player is then assigned a percentage for various passing, rushing, & receiving categories, that shows how often they will be getting the ball.

Current depth charts are used to determine the top QBs, RBs & WRs  for each team and the amount of the team’s passing plays, rushes/YDs, and catches/TDs each player will receive.

Return To The Mean

Why is Michael Vick only projected to have as many fantasy points as he did last year, in three less games? There is no calculation to return a player’s stats closer to the mean. But the way the NFL schedules it’s games is to have the division winners play the toughest schedules, by far. So the best performers every year naturally return to the mean, as better team usually equal better defenses. The parody in the NFL naturally returns players to the mean.

Where To Go From Here

There are specific pages for each player category showing each player’s full season projections. These pages automatically update after each week to combine each players earned statistics, and the players projected stats, totaling a full season projection each week of the season. Links to the pages can be found on the home page, in the navigation bar up top, and below:

• Overall Fantasy Projections & Rankings
• Full Season Quarterback (QB) Projections & Rankings
• Full Season Running Back (RB) Projections & Rankings
• Full Season Wide Receiver (WR) Projections & Rankings
• Full Season Tight End (TE) Projections & Rankings

So who really does have the easiest bracket?

Fans Opinion on Twitter’

Before we take a look at actual statistics and numbers, let’s look at the oblivious fan to see where their heads are. A simple search for “Easiest Bracket” on the twitter search provides some quick and interesting results.

On a relatively small sample size of 50, the results are pretty surprising. It was pretty obvious that everyone thinks either Duke (West) or Pitt (Southeast) have the easiest bracket. The term “Easiest bracket of all time” was used on at least half of all tweets involving those two teams.

The “Duke has the easiest bracket” tweets almost all involved saying they have the easiest bracket every year, or littered with some sort of NCAA conspiracy theory. Typical Duke haters, which probably mean they KNEW Duke had the easiest road before ever looking at a bracket.

That probably just shows that the bias of the sample due to Duke haters (probably 55% of America) makes this data irrelevant and with very little thought involved. Either way, here’s the data:

Now The Data

There are a few ways to look at the strength of each bracket. I decided to look at the total strength of all 16 seeds, and then to look at the overall strength of the top 5 seeds. To determine strength of a team I’ve used a combination of variables: Win%, RPI Avg, Strength of schedule average, AP rankings (top 42 receiving votes) and then separated the data for both the entire bracket and only seeds 1-5.

Seeds #’s 1-16

A quick once over shows serious weakness in Pitt’s bracket and strength in Duke’s bracket. But these numbers can be skewed by the lowest RPI teams in the 14-16 seeds. Let’s take a look at the top of each bracket, seeds 1-5.

Seeds #’s 1-5

To determine an overall easiest bracket, I ranked each teams and gave a point value for each rank in every category.

If the bracket had the most strength in a category, it was awarded 4 points, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd and 1 point for 4th. A very simple rating system to show an overall strength. Here’s the breakdown:

The Twitter stats seem to be the most interesting data of it all. About half of the people tweeting about the “easiest bracket” said Pitt was, and had probably gathered that by listening to the experts on ESPN and CBS.

The people tweeting about Duke having the easiest bracket, just shows how much hatred and bias is out there toward Duke. Duke actually has the toughest bracket by the statistics, to you 42% of Twitter ranting about the conspiracy between Duke and the NCAA. I wrote a similar piece on the Duke-NCAA Conspiracy that showed that Duke also had one of the toughest brackets last year. The Duke easiest bracket tweets come off about as ignorant as the Fab 5 rant against Duke in the Fab 5 documentary.

Don’t forget, 3 weeks ago both Texas and San Diego State were projected #1 seeds, and are both very capable of taking down Duke with or without Kyrie Irving.

To download my complete Excel research worksheet: 2011TournamentStats.xls

You can view all of the players on one page and sort the table for each category to see leaders. Also you can filter for school, name, position, etc.

Complete 2011 NFL combine results (all positions)

Or go to the individual positions for easier browsing: QB | RB | WR | TE | OL | DL | LB | DB

Best of the NFL Combine:

40-Yard Dash: Demarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami – 4.28 s

Vertical Jump: Virgil Green, TE, Nevada, 42.5″

Broad Jump: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama – 11′ 3″ (Best by 4″)

20-Yard Shuttle: Austin Pettis, WR, Boise St. – 3.88 s

3-Cone Drill: Jeffrey Maehl, WR, Oregon – 6.42

Bench Press Reps (225lbs): Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon St. – 49 (NFL Combine record)

Luckily it’s a Thursday night game on NFL Network, on the eve of Christmas Eve, so no one is watching anyways.

The Panthers have been running the ball well of late and they just beat the worst team in football (Cardinals) at home last week, but the Steelers jsut don’t give upa ny rushing yards, it’s their thing. The only way to beat or even compete with the Steelers is to throw the ball well. And Jimmy Clausen isn’t going to win any games in the air.

This one shouldn’t be close. The line is Steelers by -14. Projections say Steelers by 20. Pick is Steelers -14.

For full game stats projections and predictions see the Panthers Vs. Steelers Matchup.

The Eagles are coming off a brutal loss to the Bears where Michael Vick finally looked human. The Houston Texans defense may be just what the doctor ordered for Vick and the Eagles. The Texans defense is second to last to New England in pass yards per game at 286 yds/gm and second to last to the Jaguars in yards per attempt at 8.1 yards/pass.

The projection for this game shows Vick and the eagles putting up 308 yards passing at 8.3 per attempt and 3 TDs. Then when you factor in Michael Vick’s legs and Houston, may have a problem.

The Thursday night game gives another advantage to the home team, that didn’t have to travel this week.

The Vegas line is set at -8 for the Eagles.

As you can see from the graphic, I have Philly as a 88% favorite and a nearly -10 favorite in the spread. So the pick for tonight is the Eagles (-8).

Houston is lucky they still have Andre Johnson (Goodell/NFL Network Conspiracy), but it doesn’t seem to be enough and Andy Reid should have some fun with the Texans defense.

But who cares anyways? No one, and I mean no one, will miss at least the beginning of the return of Lebron James to Cleveland on ESPN, especially those without NFL Network (Sorry).