Posted by & filed under NFL.

randy moss vikings 580x398 Randy Moss A Viking (Again)

Randy Moss has been traded to the Vikings for a 3rd round pick in 2011.

Apparently there was some conflict with Moss and the QB coach. For the Patriots, they get another big draft pick, and the Vikings get the most talented WR ever, back on their team.

Favre lobbied to get the Packers to trade for Moss 5 years ago when Moss was traded to Oakland. Now he’s finally got his man.  Sydney Rice, who?

After the Oakland stint, people forgot how good Moss was. Then, when he teamed up with Tom Brady, Brady got all the credit. You’ll see now, this closes down the New England offense big time, and Brady’s game will take a big hit.

The receivers now look a whole lot like the plethora of guys they were spreading the ball to during Brady’s first Superbowl run.

Moss will play against the Jets on Monday night. Darrell Revis will not be playing.

Posted by & filed under Picks.

First off, my underdog picks are based solely on my predictions algorithm, which in the long run is right 75% of the time.  Underdog picks are simply the teams that my predictions show have the statistical advantage, but the sports book has set the lines in favor of the other team.

So each underdog pick is for that underdog team to win the game outright, no spread involved.

Last week seemed to be easy pickings:

Chiefs (+3) were a 90% favorite  over 49ers. WIN.

Titans(+3) were 84% favorites over Giants. WIN.

Falcons (+4) were 53% favorites over Saints. WIN.

Jets (+1) were 70% favorites over Dolphins. WIN.

Bears (+3) were 56% favorites over Packers. WIN.

Week 3 NFL Predictions

Yes, those were the 5 underdog picks my algorithm spit out as the winners and all 5 were correct. 5/5 is great and all, but that obviously won’t keep up every week. Or will it? Maybe I’m on to something.

Crazy that my algorithm had underdogs as 90% (Chiefs), 84% (Titans), and 70% (Jets) favorites to win the game. Is my algorithm genius or is Vegas just brain dead?

We’ll see in future weeks. Here are the underdog picks for week 4:

Chicago Bears (+4) at New York Giants (-4)

Giants are desperate, yes. That being said, I still have the Bears being big 80% favorites. The Bears were underdogs last week and I had them beating the Packers at a 56% probability (and Bears won). So the computer clearly likes the Bears, but maybe its just on to something.

Miami Dolphins (+1) at home over New England Patriots (-1)

This one boggles my mind a little bit. Vegas had Miami as a favorite against the Jets (I didn’t) and the Jets beat them, and beat the Patriots. But now Vegas has Miami at home as underdogs to the Patriots. Go FIgure. Dolphins with a projected 61% probability of winning.

Cleveland Browns (+3) at home over Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

The Browns should never be favored in a football game, nor should any team in Cleveland for any game unless they have Lebron James. That being said, I’ve got Cleveland as the slightest of slight favorites in this game, and just over 50% (50.16%). While I’d love to go in and change my algorithms just to change this single games’ outcome, I can’t. I assume Terrell Owens and OchoCinco will eventually go off, just hopefully not this week.

One other one I want to call an underdog but can’t, is the Redskins over the Eagles. I’ve got Philly winning 52% of the time, but Vegas has the Eagles as big -6 point favorites. Donovan McNabb has to be more motivated to prove a point than Andy Reid is out to embarrass him right?

Also, the Seahawks almost seem like underdogs, only being -1 against the Rams, my prediction probability for the Seahawks is  77%. Personally, I thought this was a little much, just because I can’t imagine them REALLY being that good, but the numbers thus far have showed Pete Carroll has done a very good job (and has gotten very lucky). So no underdog pick with Seattle. But anyone in the NFC West can lose to anyone in the NFC West, or anyone in the SEC (NCAA) for that matter.

Recap: Bears (+4), Dolphins (+1) and Browns (+3) are the three underdog picks this week. See all Week 4 NFL Predictions

Remember, if you can pick 50% on underdogs, you’re making a pretty hefty profit on (theoretical) bets. So starting out 5/5 last week should be a nice buffer when the computer throws out any Cleveland teams as an underdog pick.

Posted by & filed under NFL.

After a very interesting Monday Night game where the Packers shot themselves in the foot with penalties, a fumble late, and finally some terrible clock management to hand the Bears the win (and make my prediction correct) , it’s time to move on to the week 4 slate of games.

The games of the week are the two closest matchups this week from my win probabilities algorithm.

redskins vs eagles pick 580x75 Games of the Week (Week 4)The first game is the Redskins with Donovan McNabb returning to Philadelphia. Now this game is bigger than just how close the projections algorithm has them. McNabb was traded within the division to a rival to allow room for an unproven QB, Kevin Kolb, to take the helm. And now since Vick is the starting QB, there is even more drama.

McNabb recruited Vick to the Eagles and suggested Andy Reid take a look at him. Now he’s playing lights out if you watch him. If you look at his efficiency stats, Vick doesn’t look too much better than average but visually the guy looks unstoppable. Vick is also leading the NFL in fantasy points scored.

McNabb probably circled these games immeditaely when the schedule came out. He was booted out in a similar way to Brett Favre out of Green Bay.  Both guys were their franchises best ever QB’s and they were tossed out without much worry or thought.

McNabb has thrown a lot of deep 50+ yard passes this season that have just barely missed his guys by a stride. If he connects on one or two of these he’ll put up some monster numbers. I only have him projected for 210 ds but with the way the Redskins have failed ot run the ball thus far, they might go all pass, especially if they are down.

Look for Vick to continue to make big plays with his arm and his legs, and look for him to continue to lead the league in sacks and errant passes as well. This should be a very entreating game at the very least and should be a close one all the way to the end.

Full Redskins vs. Eagles Projections

The second game features that Team that T.O. and that Mexican number dude play for versus that one city that Lebron James burned to the ground a couple months ago.

bengals vs browns pick 580x74 Games of the Week (Week 4)

The Browns are a very slight favorite according to the prediction. But who really cares? No one is watching this game unless they are watching NFL redzone (which you should be). So let’s just run down some fantasy stat projections for the reality TV stars on the Bengalcats:

OchoJohnson: 6 rec, 11 targets, 74 yds & 0.4 TD’s for a total of 10 fantasy points. He had 3 last week, 4 in week 2.

T.Ocho.: 4.5 rec, 11 targets, 51 yards & 0 TDs for 5 points. He’s had 5,6, and 4 points in the first 3 weeks.

Full Bengals vs. Browns Projections

Posted by & filed under NFL, Statistics.

Week 4 predictions are up with full win probabilities for each team and a calculated moneyline for each team.

week 4 predictions 580x549 Week 4 NFL Predictions & Probabilities

For the rest of the games visit the Week 4 Predictions page.

Results:

Week 1: 10-6

Week 2: 11-5

Week 3: 14-2

So the computer algorithm has produced 35-13 thus far in the season, which is 73%.

It even got the Chicago Monday Night game, and the Atlanta/New Orleans game. Both were against my personal opinion.

This year is an all new algorithm based on my projections and so far its looking great. I’m hoping for about 75% or more for the entire season. 75% would be pretty unprecedented by a computer predictions algorithm but I’m confident I can hit in the 80% range if the ball bounces just right.

Each week’s predictions page has links to every other week to see past predictions. All future predictions are posted, but future predictions change after every single NFL game is played.

Posted by & filed under Statistics.

The player projections are up for week 3 for 2010.

The fantasy points projections can be found at the fantasy projections page.

On each player’s individual page, the game log includes projections for all of their stats for games that have not yet been played as exampled by Peyton Manning’s page below:

game log projections Player Projections & Fantasy Projections Week 3Projected stats are found in red, and fantasy points are found in green ( projected fantasy points are also green). Player pages can be found navigating through teams, or any stat page with the player on it through their link.

QB projections are looking great, and don’t need too much more data to be accurate since they are wholly based on the team’s passing projections.

RB and WR projections will increase in accuracy until week 5 when there will be enoguh season data to accurately project those positions.

Injuries are not taken into account in ANY of the projections. So if the QB that started the last game was replaced, the new QB will not have projected stats for that week. RB’s and WR’s that will carry more of a load due to another player’s injury should be adjusted accordingly.

Also, if a RB or WR has not scored a TD yet, or has not had a fumble yet, the projections for the entire season will read 0.0 for each of those stats for the time being.  I’ll work further to project variables that players haven’t yet achieved soon.

I’ll have a couple posts later on going into deeper detail on how each position is projected, and the accuracy level of the predictions.

For now, only the top 70 projected players for week 3 and the top 10 for each position are shown on the fantasy projections page. I will have pages for each position and all players of that position in the next few days for week 4. In the meantime, all players (even defensive player) have their projected stats for every week here on out on their individual pages.

Enjoy.