Duke-NCAA Conspiracy Theory
Published March 16, 2010 | 
There has been a lot of talk about how Duke has the easiest road to the Final Four in Indianapolis, and Kansas, the overall #1 seed, has one of the hardest. Duke has the most losses of the #1 seeds (5), all of which were on the road. Duke was also given the play-in game. Disregard the play-in game, since the first game for #1 seeds is always a joke, #1 has never been beaten in the first round. Kansas, Kentucky, and Duke all won their conferences and conference tournaments.
Here’s where the conspiracy theorists come into play. The NCAA is in its final 3 years of its lucrative TV contract with CBS (11 years, 6.1 billion). They can opt out after this tournament. They want another huge contract from either CBS or ESPN/ABC if they can match the CBS bid. CBS is losing money on the NCAA’s just like NBC lost money on the Winter Olympics ($250 million). So the NCAA wants to make sure ratings are huge this year to make sure CBS bids high and ESPN/ABC is drooling for the opportunity. It’s also the same reason the NCAA is considering adding 31 teams to the NCAA field to expand it to 96. Money. Big Money.
So why Duke?
Duke is ratings gold. Duke has always been ratings gold. There is never controversy with the basketball program at Duke. Everyone in America either loves Duke or hates ‘um. Just like the Yankees, Red Sox, Lebron, and Kobe people show up when Duke is in town. And they watch on TV. Living in California, I am able to watch literally all but 1 Duke basketball game each year. CBS and ESPN love them. I can only watch about half of UCLA games, 90% of those are on local Fox Sports. That’s how big Duke is nationally.
The reason a lot of people love and hate Duke is the type of players they recruit. They recruit smart kids, kids of successful parents (country club kids). So most of the players are squeaky clean, tattoo-less players and (as much as it sucks to say) white guys. They are just more marketable. The NCAA is also having problems marketing it’s big name players since they only stay for 1 year and they completely miss out on the stars of the past (Lebron, Kobe, Garnett, Bynum). So they resort to marketing legendary coaches and elite programs. Coach K is a walking legend in college sports. He’s Bob Knight (his mentor) without the controversy and with more titles and final fours. And the Duke players stay usually for 3 or 4 years with the exception of Maggette, Brand, Avery, Deng and 1 or two others. So those players are more recognizable and marketable to CBS audiences.
So did CBS have anything to do with getting Duke the easiest road to the Final Four? Probably not. But they would if they could. Did the NCAA consciously give Duke an easy road in the tournament, like people have speculated in years past? Most certainly. Just look at the top 5 seeds in the table below and their corresponding divisions.
| Region | AP | #1 Seed | AP | #2 Seed | AP | #3 Seed | AP | #4 Seed | AP | #5 Seed |
| Midwest | 1 | Kansas | 5 | Ohio State | 14 | Georgetown | 20 | Maryland | 13 | Mich. State |
| East | 2 | Kentucky | 6 | W. Virginia | 8 | New Mexico | 16 | Wisconsin | 12 | Temple |
| South | 3 | Duke | 9 | Villanova | 19 | Baylor | 10 | Purdue | 23 | Texas A&M |
| West | 4 | Syracuse | 7 | Kansas St | 18 | Pittsburgh | 21 | Vanderbilt | 11 | Butler |
Duke has the worst ranked team in the AP with every seed except the #4 seed Purdue. Well Purdue is sans their best player, and probably deserves a much lower AP rank, but the AP doesn’t much take into effect injuries like the NCAA committee seems too (even though they said they don’t take that into account).
So Duke has the weakest #2, #3, #5, and maybe, probably that #4 with Purdue being without their best player. I feel like this is unheard of for one division, especially not the overall #1 seed. Duke usually does get an easier road in the NCAA, and is notoriously over seeded, losing early in quite a few of the last tournaments.
Now bear with me on this one. I’ve summed up all of the AP rankings for each division by simply adding each ranking in each division. The higher the number, the weaker (in AP rankings terms) the competition in the top 5 seeds.
- Midwest (Kansas/Ohio St) – Ranking sum: 53
- East (Kentucky/WVU) – Ranking sum: 44
- South (Duke/Villanova) – Ranking sum: 64
- West (Syracuse/Kansas St) – Ranking sum: 61
So Duke is definitely the easiest in that sense, with Syracuse in the West a close second. The West is probably only this weak because the California, Arizona, and Washington teams are so bad, so they just fill in whatever team can garner the most attention out there.
So the facts definitely support the thought that the NCAA has manipulated the NCAA tourney field to get Duke playing more games deeper into the tournament. I wouldn’t call it a conspiracy. It’s more like a great business decision. If Duke goes to the Final Four, and maybe even the Championship game, the ratings for CBS could explode, and in all seriousness could make the NCAA over a billion dollars in an increased TV deal for the next 10-15 year stretch. And this isn’t an oil company pocketing the funds and saying screw everyone who fills up at the pump. All that money is used to bumb up the other non revenue sports in the NCAA.
So for now, we’ll have to deal with Duke getting an easier road to the Final Four year after year. It’s a business people. They still have to win 6 games to win the title.
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