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First off, my underdog picks are based solely on my predictions algorithm, which in the long run is right 75% of the time.  Underdog picks are simply the teams that my predictions show have the statistical advantage, but the sports book has set the lines in favor of the other team.

So each underdog pick is for that underdog team to win the game outright, no spread involved.

Last week seemed to be easy pickings:

Chiefs (+3) were a 90% favorite  over 49ers. WIN.

Titans(+3) were 84% favorites over Giants. WIN.

Falcons (+4) were 53% favorites over Saints. WIN.

Jets (+1) were 70% favorites over Dolphins. WIN.

Bears (+3) were 56% favorites over Packers. WIN.

Week 3 NFL Predictions

Yes, those were the 5 underdog picks my algorithm spit out as the winners and all 5 were correct. 5/5 is great and all, but that obviously won’t keep up every week. Or will it? Maybe I’m on to something.

Crazy that my algorithm had underdogs as 90% (Chiefs), 84% (Titans), and 70% (Jets) favorites to win the game. Is my algorithm genius or is Vegas just brain dead?

We’ll see in future weeks. Here are the underdog picks for week 4:

Chicago Bears (+4) at New York Giants (-4)

Giants are desperate, yes. That being said, I still have the Bears being big 80% favorites. The Bears were underdogs last week and I had them beating the Packers at a 56% probability (and Bears won). So the computer clearly likes the Bears, but maybe its just on to something.

Miami Dolphins (+1) at home over New England Patriots (-1)

This one boggles my mind a little bit. Vegas had Miami as a favorite against the Jets (I didn’t) and the Jets beat them, and beat the Patriots. But now Vegas has Miami at home as underdogs to the Patriots. Go FIgure. Dolphins with a projected 61% probability of winning.

Cleveland Browns (+3) at home over Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

The Browns should never be favored in a football game, nor should any team in Cleveland for any game unless they have Lebron James. That being said, I’ve got Cleveland as the slightest of slight favorites in this game, and just over 50% (50.16%). While I’d love to go in and change my algorithms just to change this single games’ outcome, I can’t. I assume Terrell Owens and OchoCinco will eventually go off, just hopefully not this week.

One other one I want to call an underdog but can’t, is the Redskins over the Eagles. I’ve got Philly winning 52% of the time, but Vegas has the Eagles as big -6 point favorites. Donovan McNabb has to be more motivated to prove a point than Andy Reid is out to embarrass him right?

Also, the Seahawks almost seem like underdogs, only being -1 against the Rams, my prediction probability for the Seahawks is  77%. Personally, I thought this was a little much, just because I can’t imagine them REALLY being that good, but the numbers thus far have showed Pete Carroll has done a very good job (and has gotten very lucky). So no underdog pick with Seattle. But anyone in the NFC West can lose to anyone in the NFC West, or anyone in the SEC (NCAA) for that matter.

Recap: Bears (+4), Dolphins (+1) and Browns (+3) are the three underdog picks this week. See all Week 4 NFL Predictions

Remember, if you can pick 50% on underdogs, you’re making a pretty hefty profit on (theoretical) bets. So starting out 5/5 last week should be a nice buffer when the computer throws out any Cleveland teams as an underdog pick.