Thursday Night Pick: Texans at Eagles (Week 13)
Published December 2, 2010 | 
The game that no one will be watching tonight on NFL Network is the Texans at the Eagles.
The Eagles are coming off a brutal loss to the Bears where Michael Vick finally looked human. The Houston Texans defense may be just what the doctor ordered for Vick and the Eagles. The Texans defense is second to last to New England in pass yards per game at 286 yds/gm and second to last to the Jaguars in yards per attempt at 8.1 yards/pass.
The projection for this game shows Vick and the eagles putting up 308 yards passing at 8.3 per attempt and 3 TDs. Then when you factor in Michael Vick’s legs and Houston, may have a problem.
The Thursday night game gives another advantage to the home team, that didn’t have to travel this week.
The Vegas line is set at -8 for the Eagles.
As you can see from the graphic, I have Philly as a 88% favorite and a nearly -10 favorite in the spread. So the pick for tonight is the Eagles (-8).
Houston is lucky they still have Andre Johnson (Goodell/NFL Network Conspiracy), but it doesn’t seem to be enough and Andy Reid should have some fun with the Texans defense.
But who cares anyways? No one, and I mean no one, will miss at least the beginning of the return of Lebron James to Cleveland on ESPN, especially those without NFL Network (Sorry).
Thursday Night Pick: Ravens at Falcons (Week 10)
Published November 11, 2010 | The first Thursday night game (outside of opening week) is here and will be for the rest of the season. So if 13 hours of games on Sunday and Monday just isn’t quite enough, you’re in luck.
Baltimore Ravens (+1) at Atlanta Falcons (-1) OU – 44 pts
The Ravens are coming off a huge win at home over the Dolphins, who have been a good road team over the past few seasons. They’ll be coming into Atlanta on a short week for this Thursday night game. Falcons won their game on Sunday, but Josh Freeman for TB almost had another big come from behind 4th quarter drive to add to his resume.
Not only is Atlanta one of the best home teams in the NFL, but they get this week at home on short rest in prime time.
Vegas has Atlanta as -1 point favorites, and I’ve got them as a slightly larger 62% favorite at -2.43. So The pick is for the Falcons to beat the Ravens giving 1 point.
For full game projections and matchup see the Ravens at Falcons Matchup & Projections.
NFL Underdog Picks – Week 6
Published October 14, 2010 | Week 5 was another dominant week for my underdog picks. Going 4-1 with underdogs winning with Jaguars (+2.5), Chicago (+3), Pihladelphia (+3.5), and Tennessee as massive +7 dogs. The Loss was St. Louis (+3) over the Lions. They were dominated.
Last week was a crazy week for straight up predictions where we saw huge meltdowns by 4 favorites late in games: Green Bay meltdown to Washington, Bengals meltdown to the Buccaneers, New Orleans meltdown to the Cardinals, and the Chargers meltdown to the Raiders. Interesting that 3 of those QB’s are top 5 QB’s behind Manning and Brady (Rivers, Brees, Rodgers in that order). And Carson Palmer USED to be #3 behind Peyton and Tom.
Luckily, my predictions had the 4-1 on underdogs, to go 8-6 overall for the week. Week 5 cause 40 out of 60 computer systems tracked at thepredictiontracker.com do worse than .500. And a week that saw TeamRankings.com throw out a fat 4-10 (lower than all 60 tracked systems).
Week 6 I have 6 more underdogs predicted to win:
I definitely hate seeing 6 predicted underdogs to win in any week with my algorithms. There is a reason that the teams are underdogs on the Vegas line.
Ravens (+4, +165) at Patriots
The Ravens have played some of the best football in the NFL this season, making QB after QB look like Matt Cassell every week, and firing on all cylinders on offense. New England just traded Moss, which will make them a more efficient offense in theory. But losing that deep threat and matchup difficulty for teams to deal with will make Brady look more human again like he did before he got Moss and his stats exploded.
Falcons ( +2.5, +120) at Eagles
Vick is out, or is he? Reid is keeping that pretty much to himself, and taking it day to day. That will force Atlanta to game plan for both. Vick wants to play versus his old team. And if he does play, I won’t agree with the prediction just based on Vick’s hunger and his need to prove something o Atlanta fans. It’s a small line, but it’s still a little strange given the Falcons success this season. That being said, the Falcons could have easily lost the last 2 games versus the Browns and the Saints.
Buccaneers (+4, +165) vs. Saints
Buccaneers are at home and are playing really well under Josh Freeman, who has an 85 QB rating this season. The Saints kind of have their backs to the wall and are probably going to try and make this a statement game. That being said, the Buccaneers have the 6th ranked pass defense this season, and can take a huge leap in the division with a win over the Saints.
Cowboys (+1.5) at Vikings
It’s unclear how Favre will react to a tough week last week and the ongoing Dong picture investigation. With Moss there he sure will throw up some jump balls. I expect one huge TD for Moss and one forced INT to Moss from Favre. It’s a small line, I’ve got Cowboys as 75% favorites on the road. This is a must win for both teams and who ever loses almost certainly misses the playoffs.
Chiefs (+4, +165) at Houston
Houston has played very well at home this season, including beating the Colts in week 1. Outside of Matt Cassell, the Chiefs have been great. Last week Cassell wouldn’t have been that bad if Bowe didn’t drop 4 key passes. Kansas City will continued to be very well coached and very much underrated all season until they win that division.
Raiders(+6.5, +230) at San Francisco
Huge line against Oakland even though they are playing an 0-5 team. Niners owner Jed York has guaranteed the division win and playoff berth for the 49ers. Oakland isn’t terrible this year, much to the dismay of the Patriots who hold their 1st round pick. 49ers haven’t looked terrible, they just have awful game strategy game management. Those issues simply don’t go away in 5 days and they are still in offensive coordinator transition.
Week 4 NFL Predictions & Probabilities
Published September 28, 2010 | Week 4 predictions are up with full win probabilities for each team and a calculated moneyline for each team.
For the rest of the games visit the Week 4 Predictions page.
Results:
Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 11-5
Week 3: 14-2
So the computer algorithm has produced 35-13 thus far in the season, which is 73%.
It even got the Chicago Monday Night game, and the Atlanta/New Orleans game. Both were against my personal opinion.
This year is an all new algorithm based on my projections and so far its looking great. I’m hoping for about 75% or more for the entire season. 75% would be pretty unprecedented by a computer predictions algorithm but I’m confident I can hit in the 80% range if the ball bounces just right.
Each week’s predictions page has links to every other week to see past predictions. All future predictions are posted, but future predictions change after every single NFL game is played.
Posted in NFL, Statistics | 
NFL Picks, nfl predictions, week 4 game probabilities, week 4 predictionsSaturday Night Pick: DAL at NO
Published December 19, 2009 | 
Saints go into the game 13-0 this season looking to keep their perfection and keep up with the Colts. And if you aren’t living in a small secluded box somewhere in Guatemala, you’ve probably noticed its December. Well that means awful, just terrible things for the Cowboys as they are 4-8 since 2007 in December. Its worse than that though. They blow their playoffs seeding nearly every year and then go into the playoffs and wrap up the playoff game in a nice little bow and hand it over to their opponent for Christmas.
Well this time it may be different. Although the Cowboys lost another December game last week, this week they have a chance. The Cowboys clearly aren’t driven by playoff depth and success since they’ve had none. But maybe spoiling 65 guy’s lives by ruining their perfect season is just the thing to motivate Romo and the ‘Boys. By this point, the undefeated season is within reach for the Saints and starting to hit home just how important this feat could be. This could leave them looking ahead to week 17 and the Superbowl already.
I like the Saints to win still, but they are going to have to scrap for this one too. Trust the game will be within a TD at the end, and the Cowboys cover the 8 point spread and potential win a spoiler.