NFL Records

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A Sad Day For Everyone Not Named Manning or Tavaris

favre retires again 300x300 A Sad Day For Everyone Not Named Manning or TavarisAll reports seem to indicate that Favre is retiring from football and will not be returning to the Vikings.

Now, some of you might be saying, “Finally, now we don’t have to hear about this every day for the next 12 months. Well, it probably only fuels speculation about him coming back throughout the season. But the NFL gets huge ratings boosts from Favre, and so does ESPN and EPN radio by just talking about Favre (and Lebron) 24/7. You might not like either of those players, but you are always intrigued to hear about them and watch them play. It’s just a fact.

Do we buy it? Not really. But let’s assume it’s true and see the implications for other players outside of Mississippi. Peyton Manning’s record hunt and Tarvaris Jackson stand to gain the most from Favre’s departure.

Tarvaris Jackson

Tarvaris Jackson stands to be the only person in the NFL to not lose money and fame from Favre retiring. Favre brings a lot of attention to the NFL and makes everyone richer. Except his back-up QB. Tarvaris Jackson will now start the season for the Vikings. If he has a crappy year, he’ll be in the same exact position he was 2 days ago, a back-up making back-up money.  But if Tarvaris has a pretty decent season with all that talent around him, he stand to make some good money on his next contract.

tarvaris jackson favre retirement A Sad Day For Everyone Not Named Manning or Tavaris

Tarvaris Jackson may actually not like this announcement.  He might be such a professional that he wanted the team to win, and knew Favre was about 62% better than himself, and was happy with his back-up role in exchange for a winning atmosphere. But the competitor in everyone makes this unlikely, and Tavaris probably wants to play. I don’t think he’ll be great but he’ll probably lead the team to 9 or 10 games as opposed to 12 or 13 with Favre.

Peyton Manning

Manning will finally have some numbers to shoot for, and won’t have to keeping adding years onto his own career just to outlast Favre. Let’s look at the numbers manning has to beat.

Note: Wins/Losses taken from career W/L Avg. TD, Yds, INT, Comp, Att, and Sacks will be projected from the WORST year Manning has had since 2003.

Stat Manning Favre Per Yr Per Gm Worst Year GMs Needed Years
Wins 131 181 10.9 .682 Avg 74 4.6
Losses 61 104 5.08 .318 Avg 136 8.5
TD 366 497 27 1.69 2008 78 4.9
Pass Yds 50128 69329 3747 234.2 2005 82 5.1
Cons GMs 192 284 16 1 Avg 92 5.5
INT 181 317 16 1 2009 136 8.5
Comp 4232 6083 305 25.4 2005 73 4.5
Att 6531 9811 453 37.8 2005 87 5.5
Sacks 215 503 21 1.3 2007 220 13.7

So Peyton is right on his way to take down most of Favre’s records in the next 5 years (at least the good ones). Note that these projections are projected from Mannings WORST year of the last 7 years. Comp, Att, and Yds were all taken from 2005. Int projected from 2009, sacks from 2007, and TD from 2008.

Within 4 years he could break the TD, Wins, Comp and maybe even yards if he has stellar seasons. If his career winds down like most players’ do, hell do it in 5.

peyton matrix A Sad Day For Everyone Not Named Manning or Tavaris

If Favre comes back for another year, you can add 1 full year onto each of those projections.

There are some records Manning will never (probably) break. For sacks, the most extreme case, would take 220 games, or 13+ years to get to the Favre sack mark. Also interceptions, will take 9 years to break, and would probably be even longer. Losses are on point with interceptions, would take 8.5 years to break that one, rather than 4.6 years for wins.

So all in all, there are only 2 beneficiaries from Favre retiring. Hopefully he comes back, so we can all be enthralled watching Favre during the season. And that way he won’t have to end on a terrible interception in the playoffs last year.

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