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	<title>pickingpros.com &#187; NFL</title>
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	<link>http://pickingpros.com/blog</link>
	<description>Unleashing the power of statistics to give the best predictions for every situation.</description>
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		<title>The Indianapolis Quilts</title>
		<link>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/the-indianapolis-quilts/</link>
		<comments>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/the-indianapolis-quilts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jan 2010 00:23:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Britt Engelbrecht</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[caldwell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[colts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[playoffs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pickingpros.com/blog/?p=59</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TweetDon&#8217;t worry, thats not a typo, its an indication of the lack of competitiveness and softness of the Colts franchise over the last few years. Year after year, Peyton Manning dominates the regular season, putting up insane stats consistently, and beat the best teams in the league (at least of late).  However, come time for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[            <a href="http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="" data-text="The Indianapolis Quilts" data-via="" data-url="http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/the-indianapolis-quilts/" >Tweet</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><a href="http://pickingpros.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/caldwell-quilts.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-60" title="caldwell-quilts" src="http://pickingpros.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/caldwell-quilts.jpg" alt="caldwell quilts The Indianapolis Quilts" width="320" height="240" /></a>Don&#8217;t worry, thats not a typo, its an indication of the lack of competitiveness and softness of the Colts franchise over the last few years.</p>
<p>Year after year, <a title="Peyton Manning" href="http://pickingpros.com/nfl/ply/peyton-manning-stats.php">Peyton Manning</a> dominates the regular season, putting up insane stats consistently, and beat the best teams in the league (at least of late).  However, come time for the playoffs and things unravel.  The coaches decide to sit their players, give their team a rest, and sit back, and watch other teams fight for playoff spots.  Is the wild-card weeknd Bye week not enough rest?  Sure, dont play your most injured players obviously.  Pulling Peyton and his offense off the field serves no good.  This offense works so well because of their rhythm and preparedness.</p>
<p>Those are just the reasons for every OTHER season that this has happened.  THIS year, the team was close to something no one has ever done and every player wants it.  Going 19-0 for the season means more to players than they will let on from their politically correct mumbo jumbo in the press conferences after the game.  You ruined the hopes and dreams of your players.  They have a Superbowl already, sure they want another but perfection would mean far more than just one more ring.  By essentially quitting on the last two games of the season Caldwell has stripped a good 50% of their playoff motivation away from them.  Not only that, but players start questioning their coaches when they make stupid calls like that.</p>
<p>Now the history of this decision for the Colts.  When resting players and &#8216;shutting it down&#8217; the last game or two of the regular season, the Colts are 0-5 in playoffs in terms of Superbowl victories.  Now the one year, 2006-2007, that they needed to work and keep momentum to actually make the playoffs, ended in their lone Superbowl.  Second guessing your players and their health just makes them think about it themselves even more.  Caldwell, you&#8217;re no Belichick.  Because He never rests his player and just gives up on the last games of the season.  He keeps momentum and keeps the competitiveness of the team up entering the playoffs with force.  Thats why the Patriots have 3 rings to the Colts 1.</p>
<p>After you lose in your first game this year Caldwell, please change your soft uncompetitive ways and take a play out of Belichicks playbook and get Peyton a few more Superbowls.</p>
<p><em>Disclaimer:  I am a Colts fan over any other NFL team(esp. Patriots), but since the coach and GM gave up on the players and fans of the Colts, I am heavily considering giving up on the Colts.</em></p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Saturday Night Pick: DAL at NO</title>
		<link>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/saturdayn-night-pick-dal-at-no/</link>
		<comments>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/saturdayn-night-pick-dal-at-no/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 19 Dec 2009 19:45:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Britt Engelbrecht</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cowboys]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL Picks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[saints]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pickingpros.com/blog/?p=51</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tweet Saints go into the game 13-0 this season looking to keep their perfection and keep up with the Colts. And if you aren&#8217;t living in a small secluded box somewhere in Guatemala, you&#8217;ve probably noticed its December. Well that means awful, just terrible things for the Cowboys as they are 4-8 since 2007 in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[            <a href="http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="" data-text="Saturday Night Pick: DAL at NO" data-via="" data-url="http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/saturdayn-night-pick-dal-at-no/" >Tweet</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-52" title="Cowboys-Saints" src="http://pickingpros.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Cowboys-Saints_300.jpg" alt="Cowboys Saints 300 Saturday Night Pick: DAL at NO" width="300" height="200" /><br />
Saints go into the game 13-0 this season looking to keep their perfection and keep up with the Colts.  And if you aren&#8217;t living in a small secluded box somewhere in Guatemala, you&#8217;ve probably noticed its December.  Well that means awful, just terrible things for the Cowboys as they are 4-8 since 2007 in December.  Its worse than that though.  They blow their playoffs seeding nearly every year and then go into the playoffs and wrap up the playoff game in a nice little bow and hand it over to their opponent for Christmas.</p>
<p>Well this time it may be different.  Although the Cowboys lost another December game last week, this week they have a chance.  The Cowboys clearly aren&#8217;t driven by playoff depth and success since they&#8217;ve had none.  But maybe spoiling 65 guy&#8217;s lives by ruining their perfect season is just the thing to motivate Romo and the &#8216;Boys.  By this point, the undefeated season is within reach for the Saints and starting to hit home just how important this feat could be.  This could leave them looking ahead to week 17 and the Superbowl already.</p>
<p>I like the Saints to win still, but they are going to have to scrap for this one too.  Trust the game will be within a TD at the end, and the Cowboys cover the 8 point spread and potential win a spoiler.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Indy-feated Season?</title>
		<link>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/indy-feated-season/</link>
		<comments>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/indy-feated-season/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:50:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Britt Engelbrecht</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[colts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[manning]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pickingpros.com/blog/?p=45</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tweet Peyton Peyton Peyton. Is this guy good or what? He&#8217;s led the Colts to a 14-0 start, in which 7 of those were come from behind IN THE 4TH QUARTER. Which of course, another NFL record set by Manning and the Colts. The question now is should they go for 16? I think the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[            <a href="http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="" data-text="Indy-feated Season?" data-via="" data-url="http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/indy-feated-season/" >Tweet</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><img src="http://pickingpros.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/manning.jpg" alt="manning Indy feated Season?" title="manning" width="298" height="380" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-46" /><br />
Peyton Peyton Peyton.  Is this guy good or what?  He&#8217;s led the Colts to a 14-0 start, in which 7 of those were come from behind IN THE 4TH QUARTER.  Which of course, another NFL record set by Manning and the Colts.</p>
<p>The question now is should they go for 16? I think the answer is absolutely, Yes.  When have the colts ever done well after resting players going into the playoffs to keep them &#8220;fresh&#8221;?  The answer is never.  Manning&#8217;s lone Superbowl was one from one of his very few wildcard games.  Since they have the first round bye in the playoffs solidified, there is no reason to rest anyways.  Every year, the colts look great going into week 15 of the season and then something happens.  They lose their edge.  They get complacent and start resting players for the playoffs.  Then they come out soft and unprepared mentally and physically after 2-3 weeks of rest without hard game action.</p>
<p>This time they have something to play for.  The undefeated season that lives forever, and can never be topped.  The Colts are so close, they ahve to go for it.  Now that the Patiots have done it, not a single analyst and &#8216;expert&#8217; are saying rest your players.  Play full out.  Dominate the last two game vs the Jets and Buffalo and go into the playoffs with the undefeated season, looking to make it 19.</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t decide if Manning is really that complacent with <em>just</em> a superbowl here.  And think about the other records on the line.  23 regular season games in a row.  If they can get it to 25 straight going into next year that record would likely go to 30 since they always start fast, being the best mentally prepared team early in the year.  Manning is having a season for the ages and is on the cusp of all the major NFL QB records.  An undefeated season, even if it doens&#8217;t result in a Superbowl win, would add to Manning&#8217;s elite status and strengthen his argument for best of all time.</p>
<p>Go for it Colts.  You owe it to your players who have worked so hard to get it to 14-0, dont give them a let down going into the playoffs, AGAIN.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Thursday Night Pick: IND(-3) at JAC</title>
		<link>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/thursday-night-pick/thursday-night-pick-ind-3-at-jac/</link>
		<comments>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/thursday-night-pick/thursday-night-pick-ind-3-at-jac/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:04:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Britt Engelbrecht</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Thursday Night Pick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[colts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jaguars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[manning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pickingpros.com/blog/?p=40</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tweet Peyton is still undefeated facing a division rival who have spoiled Colts undefeated seasons in the past. The Jaguars defense a few years ago would give Peyton trouble, put times have changed and Peyton owns the Jags team of late. We are starting to hear whispers out of players in Indy indicating they want [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[            <a href="http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="" data-text="Thursday Night Pick: IND(-3) at JAC" data-via="" data-url="http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/thursday-night-pick/thursday-night-pick-ind-3-at-jac/" >Tweet</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><img src="http://pickingpros.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/peyton_manning.jpg" alt="peyton manning Thursday Night Pick: IND( 3) at JAC " title="peyton_manning" width="249" height="209" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-41" /><br />
Peyton is still undefeated facing a division rival who have spoiled Colts undefeated seasons in the past.  The Jaguars defense a few years ago would give Peyton trouble, put times have changed and Peyton owns the Jags team of late.</p>
<p>We are starting to hear whispers out of players in Indy indicating they want to go for the undefeated season.  I mean, why not? All it does is keep up momentum going into playoffs.  The Colts will rest their injured players in the final 3 weeks as much as possible.</p>
<p>But 3 points in this situation is just not enough to give the jaguars the betting edge.  The Colts have the advantage in all of the major statistical categories that are causal to a win (with the exception of the large gap in rushing). </p>
<p>Look for the Colts defense to come through again and lead the colts to a 6 point victory.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Moss, Doggin&#8217; It? (No Vick references I promise&#8230;)</title>
		<link>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/moss-doggin-it-no-vick-references-i-promise/</link>
		<comments>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/moss-doggin-it-no-vick-references-i-promise/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Dec 2009 21:27:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Britt Engelbrecht</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Moss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patriots]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pickingpros.com/blog/?p=25</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tweet So after the Patriots vs. Panthers game this past weekend, everyone who has ever watched sports has put an opinion into this Moss &#8216;quitting&#8217; situation. Well I was of course watching the game, and said myself multiple times: &#8220;Ok, this guy is finally quitting on the Patriots.&#8221; And that interception that Gamble had was [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[            <a href="http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="" data-text="Moss, Doggin&#8217; It? (No Vick references I promise&#8230;)" data-via="" data-url="http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/moss-doggin-it-no-vick-references-i-promise/" >Tweet</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><img src="http://pickingpros.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1194121065_4820.jpg" alt="1194121065 4820 Moss, Doggin It? (No Vick references I promise...)" title="1194121065_4820" width="500" height="330" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-26" /><br />
So after the Patriots vs. Panthers game this past weekend, everyone who has ever watched sports has put an opinion into this Moss &#8216;quitting&#8217; situation.  Well I was of course watching the game, and said myself multiple times: &#8220;Ok, this guy is finally quitting on the Patriots.&#8221;  And that interception that Gamble had was because of a weakly run route (and a lofted pass).  </p>
<blockquote><p>
&#8220;We knew he was going to shut it down,&#8221; Panthers cornerback <a title="Chris Gamble" href="http://pickingpros.com/nfl/ply/chris-gamble-stats.php">Chris Gamble</a> said after the game. &#8220;That&#8217;s what we wanted to do him. That&#8217;s what we did. &#8230; He&#8217;d just give up a lot &#8230; Slow down, he&#8217;s not going deep, not trying to run a route. You can tell, his body language.&#8221; Gamble continued &#8230; &#8220;I know everyone who plays against him, they can sense that. Once you get into him in the beginning of the game, he shuts it down a little bit.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>All of this is true, if Moss isn&#8217;t involved early, he&#8217;ll shut it down a little bit (see <a title="Terrell Owens" href="http://pickingpros.com/nfl/ply/terrell-owens-stats.php">Terrell Owens</a> or NBA defense).  But some of the best analysis of Moss in this game was given by Merrill Hoge and Steve Young (ESPN&#8217;s best football minds, in my opinion).  Hoge says he watched the tape and it was Moss&#8217; hardest fought game hes ever seen, including route running.  And those two had the Gamble interception spot on.</p>
<p>First of all, Peppers came flying at Brady, so he threw the ball early and off of his back foot so the ball floated up for the defender.  Gamble was playing an outside route defense, which is dangerous for the QB on the out route.  Moss saw this, and knew Brady wouldn&#8217;t throw the pass into that kind of coverage to Moss, so maybe he didn&#8217;t run the route as hard as he could/should and it resulted in a pick.  But receivers often know when and when they are not getting the ball on certain plays/coverages, and take a couple plays off.  Sprinting 20 yards full out every minute for 180 minutes is not an easy task, so that is justified.  </p>
<p>End of story, as much as I dislike the Patriots and hope for all the turmoil in the world to come upon them, Moss deserves a break this time.  From what I&#8217;ve seen hes been a great player since leaving the horrid situation in Oakland and playing HOF football.  But just for fun, can we go ahead and speculate that Moss DID QUIT, and its because he is jealous of <a title="Wes Welker" href="http://pickingpros.com/nfl/ply/wes-welker-stats.php">Wes Welker</a> being the most influential and game changing WR&#8217;s in the league?  Rumor, begun.</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Monday Night Pick: ARZ at SF(+180)</title>
		<link>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/monday-night-pick-arz-at-sf4/</link>
		<comments>http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/monday-night-pick-arz-at-sf4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:45:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Britt Engelbrecht</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL Picks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SF]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pickingpros.com/blog/?p=14</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tweet While this game is still a big one, with fans geared up for this match-up on both sides, it could have been much better. Had the 49ers won last week or the Cardinals lost, this game would have a big impact on the playoff outcome. Now the Niners need a miracle (Win last 4, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[            <a href="http://twitter.com/share" class="twitter-share-button" data-count="" data-text="Monday Night Pick: ARZ at SF(+180)" data-via="" data-url="http://pickingpros.com/blog/nfl/monday-night-pick-arz-at-sf4/" >Tweet</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p><img src="http://pickingpros.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/a_smith.jpg" alt="a smith Monday Night Pick: ARZ at SF(+180)" title="a_smith" width="331" height="279" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15" /><br />
While this game is still a big one, with fans geared up for this match-up on both sides, it could have been much better. Had the 49ers won last week or the Cardinals lost, this game would have a big impact on the playoff outcome. Now the Niners need a miracle (Win last 4, ARZ lose last 4) to make the playoffs.</p>
<p>Outside of any playoff potential, this 49ers team has a load of talent on both sides of the ball and they need to gain some confidence in their abilities with big implications for offseason work ethic going into next season. Mike Singletary knows this and will have his team prepared like it is a playoff game.</p>
<p>The Cardinals know they have basically solidified their playoff position and are really only playing for Home field in the 1st round of the playoffs.  Lets see if <a title="Kurt Warner" href="http://pickingpros.com/nfl/ply/kurt-warner-stats.php">Kurt Warner</a> &#8216;feels&#8217; like playing after his first hard hit by the SF linebackers.</p>
<p>49ers cover the spread (+4) and win the game behind (Yes I&#8217;m saying it) <a title="Alex Smith" href="http://pickingpros.com/nfl/ply/alex-smith-3137-stats.php">Alex Smith</a>.<em></em></p>]]></content:encoded>
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