Monday Night Pick: HOU Texans at IND Colts
Published November 1, 2010 | 
I’m not sure what is more interesting at this point. Who wins the Texans vs. Colts game or whoe wins the ratings battle between Monday Night Football and the World Series.
Last night, Sunday Ngiht Football beat out the World Series in ratings. It was the first time ever that a regular season game beat out a World Series game in ratings. Go Rangers!
Tonight it shouldn’t be close. Everyone has the networks on their TV. But ESPN is cable. This would be really embarassing if Peyton Manning and Arian Foster on cable really beat out the World Series clincher. Although, I can see it happening, and it might.
To the Monday Night Matchup. Colts were probably pretty damn embarassed in week 1 when the Texans won probably their most important win in franchise history. Arian Foster, an undrafted free agent, ran ALL OVER the Colts to burst onto the scene with 231 yards and 3 TD’s.
Superbowl hangover for sure. But the Texans finally asserted themselves as a threat to that division in finally beating Peyton Manning. This one shouldn’t go the same. Although pretty much everyone on the Colts is injured and out on both offense and defense, the Colts are so well coached and stacked with similar talent at the WR position that it shouldn’t be much of a factor. The Texans will either try to force it to Andre Johnson early or go to the ground heavily to test the Indy defense. If the Colts run D can stand strong in the first quarter and the can grab a lead, it should be all Colts all night.
Have you ever bet against Peyton Manning in a night game? Well you lost that bet. Peyton is just deadly at prime time and night games.
The win is definitely on the Colts side, but I the Texans are being overlooked by Vegas as 10.5 point underdogs. Andre Johnson is back and healthy, and they have found a second running back threat in Derrick Ward.
I have the Colts projected to win as 77% favorites in the game, by a spread of -6.18.
For more stats and projections on the matchup visit the Texans vs. Colts Matchup page.
A Sad Day For Everyone Not Named Manning or Tavaris
Published August 3, 2010 | 
All reports seem to indicate that Favre is retiring from football and will not be returning to the Vikings.
Now, some of you might be saying, “Finally, now we don’t have to hear about this every day for the next 12 months. Well, it probably only fuels speculation about him coming back throughout the season. But the NFL gets huge ratings boosts from Favre, and so does ESPN and EPN radio by just talking about Favre (and Lebron) 24/7. You might not like either of those players, but you are always intrigued to hear about them and watch them play. It’s just a fact.
Do we buy it? Not really. But let’s assume it’s true and see the implications for other players outside of Mississippi. Peyton Manning’s record hunt and Tarvaris Jackson stand to gain the most from Favre’s departure.
Tarvaris Jackson
Tarvaris Jackson stands to be the only person in the NFL to not lose money and fame from Favre retiring. Favre brings a lot of attention to the NFL and makes everyone richer. Except his back-up QB. Tarvaris Jackson will now start the season for the Vikings. If he has a crappy year, he’ll be in the same exact position he was 2 days ago, a back-up making back-up money. But if Tarvaris has a pretty decent season with all that talent around him, he stand to make some good money on his next contract.
Tarvaris Jackson may actually not like this announcement. He might be such a professional that he wanted the team to win, and knew Favre was about 62% better than himself, and was happy with his back-up role in exchange for a winning atmosphere. But the competitor in everyone makes this unlikely, and Tavaris probably wants to play. I don’t think he’ll be great but he’ll probably lead the team to 9 or 10 games as opposed to 12 or 13 with Favre.
Peyton Manning
Manning will finally have some numbers to shoot for, and won’t have to keeping adding years onto his own career just to outlast Favre. Let’s look at the numbers manning has to beat.
Note: Wins/Losses taken from career W/L Avg. TD, Yds, INT, Comp, Att, and Sacks will be projected from the WORST year Manning has had since 2003.
| Stat | Manning | Favre | Per Yr | Per Gm | Worst Year | GMs Needed | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins | 131 | 181 | 10.9 | .682 | Avg | 74 | 4.6 |
| Losses | 61 | 104 | 5.08 | .318 | Avg | 136 | 8.5 |
| TD | 366 | 497 | 27 | 1.69 | 2008 | 78 | 4.9 |
| Pass Yds | 50128 | 69329 | 3747 | 234.2 | 2005 | 82 | 5.1 |
| Cons GMs | 192 | 284 | 16 | 1 | Avg | 92 | 5.5 |
| INT | 181 | 317 | 16 | 1 | 2009 | 136 | 8.5 |
| Comp | 4232 | 6083 | 305 | 25.4 | 2005 | 73 | 4.5 |
| Att | 6531 | 9811 | 453 | 37.8 | 2005 | 87 | 5.5 |
| Sacks | 215 | 503 | 21 | 1.3 | 2007 | 220 | 13.7 |
So Peyton is right on his way to take down most of Favre’s records in the next 5 years (at least the good ones). Note that these projections are projected from Mannings WORST year of the last 7 years. Comp, Att, and Yds were all taken from 2005. Int projected from 2009, sacks from 2007, and TD from 2008.
Within 4 years he could break the TD, Wins, Comp and maybe even yards if he has stellar seasons. If his career winds down like most players’ do, hell do it in 5.
If Favre comes back for another year, you can add 1 full year onto each of those projections.
There are some records Manning will never (probably) break. For sacks, the most extreme case, would take 220 games, or 13+ years to get to the Favre sack mark. Also interceptions, will take 9 years to break, and would probably be even longer. Losses are on point with interceptions, would take 8.5 years to break that one, rather than 4.6 years for wins.
So all in all, there are only 2 beneficiaries from Favre retiring. Hopefully he comes back, so we can all be enthralled watching Favre during the season. And that way he won’t have to end on a terrible interception in the playoffs last year.
Posted in NFL | 
Brett Favre, Favre Records, Manning Records, NFL Records, Peyton Manning, Retirement, Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings