NFL Underdog Picks – Week 6
Published October 14, 2010 | 
Week 5 was another dominant week for my underdog picks. Going 4-1 with underdogs winning with Jaguars (+2.5), Chicago (+3), Pihladelphia (+3.5), and Tennessee as massive +7 dogs. The Loss was St. Louis (+3) over the Lions. They were dominated.
Last week was a crazy week for straight up predictions where we saw huge meltdowns by 4 favorites late in games: Green Bay meltdown to Washington, Bengals meltdown to the Buccaneers, New Orleans meltdown to the Cardinals, and the Chargers meltdown to the Raiders. Interesting that 3 of those QB’s are top 5 QB’s behind Manning and Brady (Rivers, Brees, Rodgers in that order). And Carson Palmer USED to be #3 behind Peyton and Tom.
Luckily, my predictions had the 4-1 on underdogs, to go 8-6 overall for the week. Week 5 cause 40 out of 60 computer systems tracked at thepredictiontracker.com do worse than .500. And a week that saw TeamRankings.com throw out a fat 4-10 (lower than all 60 tracked systems).
Week 6 I have 6 more underdogs predicted to win:
I definitely hate seeing 6 predicted underdogs to win in any week with my algorithms. There is a reason that the teams are underdogs on the Vegas line.
Ravens (+4, +165) at Patriots
The Ravens have played some of the best football in the NFL this season, making QB after QB look like Matt Cassell every week, and firing on all cylinders on offense. New England just traded Moss, which will make them a more efficient offense in theory. But losing that deep threat and matchup difficulty for teams to deal with will make Brady look more human again like he did before he got Moss and his stats exploded.
Falcons ( +2.5, +120) at Eagles
Vick is out, or is he? Reid is keeping that pretty much to himself, and taking it day to day. That will force Atlanta to game plan for both. Vick wants to play versus his old team. And if he does play, I won’t agree with the prediction just based on Vick’s hunger and his need to prove something o Atlanta fans. It’s a small line, but it’s still a little strange given the Falcons success this season. That being said, the Falcons could have easily lost the last 2 games versus the Browns and the Saints.
Buccaneers (+4, +165) vs. Saints
Buccaneers are at home and are playing really well under Josh Freeman, who has an 85 QB rating this season. The Saints kind of have their backs to the wall and are probably going to try and make this a statement game. That being said, the Buccaneers have the 6th ranked pass defense this season, and can take a huge leap in the division with a win over the Saints.
Cowboys (+1.5) at Vikings
It’s unclear how Favre will react to a tough week last week and the ongoing Dong picture investigation. With Moss there he sure will throw up some jump balls. I expect one huge TD for Moss and one forced INT to Moss from Favre. It’s a small line, I’ve got Cowboys as 75% favorites on the road. This is a must win for both teams and who ever loses almost certainly misses the playoffs.
Chiefs (+4, +165) at Houston
Houston has played very well at home this season, including beating the Colts in week 1. Outside of Matt Cassell, the Chiefs have been great. Last week Cassell wouldn’t have been that bad if Bowe didn’t drop 4 key passes. Kansas City will continued to be very well coached and very much underrated all season until they win that division.
Raiders(+6.5, +230) at San Francisco
Huge line against Oakland even though they are playing an 0-5 team. Niners owner Jed York has guaranteed the division win and playoff berth for the 49ers. Oakland isn’t terrible this year, much to the dismay of the Patriots who hold their 1st round pick. 49ers haven’t looked terrible, they just have awful game strategy game management. Those issues simply don’t go away in 5 days and they are still in offensive coordinator transition.
Terrell Owens Possible Destinations
Published July 20, 2010 | A lot has been made about where Terrell Owens might end up and whether he’s worth it for any team to pick up after a dismal 2009 campaign in Buffalo. Well, first of all, that dismal campaign wasn’t all that bad.
T.O. was being thrown to by 2 QB’s that probably wouldn’t make back-up for any other team in the league (except the Lions, of course). Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards split the snaps about 50/50 due to injury and performance. Both had a 70ish QB rating and both had more INT than TD.
T.O. had pretty good stats considering those two guys being the signal callers. He pulled in 55 catches for 829 yards with 5 TD. All of those are down relative to T.O. expectations and career averages, but he did have better numbers than the fast and very talented Lee Evans. T.O. Also pulled down a 9 catch 197 yard game with a 98 yard TD catch.
I think NFL teams know his value much better than the typically wrong media, and they also understand T.O.’s attitude weaknesses better than most NFL fans. But eventually Terrell will land on a team, and these are the ones that he can help the most. (Keep in mind T.O. wants a 4 million contract and to be in playoff contention)
Tennessee Titans
JaMarcus Russell Finally Lives Up To Expectations: Arrested For ‘Purple Drank’
Published July 5, 2010 | 
Jamarcus Russell was arrested today for possession of a controlled substance in Mobile, Alabama. The substance was codeine syrup, or cough syrup infused with codeine. Russell obviously didn’t have a prescription for it. The arrest was part of a sting operation. Russell was arrested at his Mobile home (not mobile-home, in Mobile, AL) by police and was later released on $2,500 bail. JaMarcus was born and went to high school in Mobile.
The codeine cough syrup is commonly called ‘Purple Drank‘ in the Hip-Hop community. Codeine is a narcotic that in large quantities lead to sedation and altered states of consciousness. While codeine is a pain killer, this concoction is used more as a recreational drug in the Hip-Hop community than to cover up any real pain.
This pretty much ruins any chance of JaMarcus getting even a min contract for anyone this off-season. With training camp looming and his court date set for July 20th (will probably be pushed back), It’s doubtful any team will be as stupid as the Raiders were originally. Russell will certianly go down as the worst #1 pick in NFL history, but I’d go as far to say he is the worst NFL player in NFL history. He had a career QB rating of 65 and a career completion rating of 52% with 18 TDs and 23 INT including 70 sacks.
This is a win for Al Davis probably in his mind. He probably thinks “Hey, I got rid of him just in time.” Well, you were two years late on that one Al, but for any of you non-Raiders fans it’s a win for you, because you know your team probably won;t make the mistake on Him with a min salary and roster position that someone was likely to.
If you respond better to listening to rap than you do reading a boring Wikipedia page, here is Fraser Boy with Miek Jones and Paul Wall to explain it in a gospel hymn:
Chappelle Purple Drank:
Jason Campbell Traded to Raiders, Contract Extended
Published April 24, 2010 | 
Jason Campbell has been traded to the Oakland Raiders from the Washington Redskins, who apparently ARE going to admit that Jamarcus Russell is garbage at QB. Now they gave up a 4th round pick for Campbell, which nis definitely worth it. But not a 4th rounder this year, and not a 4th rounder in the 2011 draft, but a 4th rounder in the 2012 draft! What a steal, that would essentially be the same worth as a 7th rounder this year, for a guy that can come in and play the position immediately. The Redskins continue to blow the draft process at a whole getting almost nothing for a good QB, but they definitely did Campbell a favor (even though its the raiders) with McNabb taking over the starting job.
The Oakland Raiders also extended Jason Campbell for another year on his contract. He will make 3.1 million in 2010 and he was extended 1 year for 4.5 million in 2011.
Jason Campbell has increased his QB rating, completion % and TD/INT ratio every year for three years, all with different offenses.